It was two months ago that the young forward was standing on the Stadium of Light pitch, looking confused as Unai Emery admonished him for not reading a pass in behind. During that period, as the club failed to win in six, doubts remained if his displays were a symptom or a cause of the team's more general malaise.
“As Rogers swept in his second… Emery ripped off his thick padded coat, spread his arms and roared.”
This weekend, however, the touchline reaction was entirely much more joyous. After the England international curled home his brace-sealing goal to reclaim Villa's lead, the Spanish tactician tore off his jacket, spread his arms and roared. The team continued to a 10th successive win and despite not winning their initial half-dozen matches, are somehow only three points adrift of table-toppers Arsenal.
Is Aston Villa Serious Title Contenders?
It remains a rather hard question to address. The historical record, the traditional standing of the club, suggests not. Moreover, they've rarely been wholly dominant this season, while the wins have piled up.
As per the data, in only two games have Villa had an expected goals figure more than 0.5 greater than their opponents. For a team who have strung together a ten-match winning streak, they seem strangely fragile – however currently the fine lines are swinging for them.
The Winning Formula
The prevailing tactic seems to be to trade blows with the opposition before hoping their star man to bail them out with two clinical strikes. This occurred against Leeds, it happened against West Ham, and it happened when facing Manchester United.
His opener came from a superb shot, arced precisely inside the upright from the edge of the area. For his second proved to be a slightly less clean iteration of the opener as he pounced on a pass from Watkins.
“Rogers’ right foot is now akin to Robben’s legendary left: forewarned does not mean forearmed, and stopping him is another matter entirely.”
Can It Last?
Common sense dictates no. Against United, Manchester United managed more shots and more shots on target. The team has triumphed in eight consecutive games by the narrowest of margins. They have allowed goals in all but one of those games.
A statistical correction may well be the greatest opponent Villa will encounter in the near future. The forward, in all likelihood, cannot maintain blasting the football past despairing goalkeepers week in, week out.
A Case for Belief
Maybe there exists a different scenario in which, rather than results trending towards performances, the level of play rises to match the results. Vital cogs may yet find their top level.
- Ollie Watkins may begin to finding the net regularly.
- Jadon Sancho might become the force he showed during his peak.
- The injured centre-backs are set to regain fitness, strengthening a sometimes shaky defensive unit.
Perhaps there is in that the possibility of a genuine bid, but they surely cannot keep relying on one man.
Relishing the Unlikely
However, this was unforeseen. It seemed improbable Villa would occupy in the top three for the holidays. And certainly back in October, nobody thought the young forward as the year closed would be spearheading a hunt for the title while looking like a vital player for the national team.
The current run should be enjoyed for the very reason that it feels so unlikely. As the hero positioned himself before the North End after the match orchestrating the applause, he appeared to be relishing every moment. Which he fully merits. These spells are uncommon in the sport and must be appreciated.
